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Floating market prices of airplanes !?


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#1 THRACIAN

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Posted 31.01.2017 - 18:03

Is it possible to avoid the use of one single aircraft of all players?
Price increases in more orders for one type of aircraft. Number of aircraft ordered from all players.
Bombardier CSeries 100 - Quantity produced 3,474 = 34% higher price when ordering or 39,000,000 x 1.34 = 52,260,000 AS$
Bombardier CSeries 300 - Quantity produced 2,410 = 24% higher price when ordering or 46,000,000 x 1.24 = 57,040,000 AS$
001-099 pieces - 0%    List price - 39,000,000 AS$
100-199 pieces - + 1% List price - 39,000,000 x 1,01 = Market price - 39,390,000 AS$
200-299 pieces - + 2% List price - 39,000,000 x 1,02 = Market price - 39,780,000 AS$
900-999 pieces - + 9% List price - 39,000,000 x 1,09 = Market price - 42,510,000 AS$

The price is reduced for airplanes for a week orders are less than 100 units.

001-099 - one   week -    1% List price - 40,000,000 -      400,000 = Market price - 39,600,000 AS$
001-099 -   2    weeks -   2% List price - 40,000,000 -      800,000 = Market price - 39,200,000 AS$
001-099 -   3    weeks -   3% List price - 40,000,000 -   1,200,000 = Market price - 38,800,000 AS$
001-099 -   5    weeks -   5% List price - 40,000,000 -   2,000,000 = Market price - 38,000,000 AS$

001-099 - 50    weeks - 50% List price - 40,000,000 - 20,000,000 = Market price - 20,000,000 AS$

001-099 - 51 > weeks - 50% List price - 54,000,000 - 27,000,000 = Market price - 27,000,000 AS$


Edited by THRACIAN, 28.04.2017 - 23:00.


#2 yukawa

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Posted 31.01.2017 - 19:15

that would only make it harder to impossible to enter existing game worlds.

 

also, that's kinda unrealistic, as the more units are being produced, the lower the costs per unit are. and as, for some reason, aircraft manufacteurers like to sell their products, why would they not use that against their competitors.


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#3 THRACIAN

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Posted 31.01.2017 - 20:53

There is no need to introduce the old worlds. Many things in the game are not realistic.
When production can not meet demand for a product price rises.
Actually produced The Bombardier CSeries family has the following numbers of firm orders and delivered aircraft, as of 30 December 2016
Bombardier CS100 - Ordered - 123 - Delivered - 5
Bombardier CS300 - Ordered - 237 - Delivered - 2
Sukhoi Superjet SSJ 100/95/95LR - Ordered - 370 - Delivered - 96

Edited by THRACIAN, 04.02.2017 - 04:05.


#4 yukawa

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Posted 31.01.2017 - 21:27

well, even if you only use that on a new server, wouldn't that grow old eventually?

 

and if everybody wants to fly bobby or airbus, isn't that their prerogative?


“Crying about the economy is a strategy. It won’t get you a job, but it will keep Kleenex in business.
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#5 AK

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Posted 01.02.2017 - 20:56

....
 
also, that's kinda unrealistic, as the more units are being produced, the lower the costs per unit are. and as, for some reason, aircraft manufacteurers like to sell their products, why would they not use that against their competitors.


We really need to differentiate here when it comes to AS.
I perfectly agree as far as buying/selling business is concerned. So the following is on a more general note.

Leasing in AS is absolutely unrealistic - flat out absurd if you ask me.
We get a discount, the more units we lease? What?

So a manufacturer produces a good only to lease it to me. Not only doesn't he ask for a real security, he furthermore increases my discount, the higher his risk gets. Wow!
I sign a contract to lease 50 airframes to get 5% discount and keep the discount even if I cancel 49 orders right after taking delivery? Unreal. I'd hate being that manufacturer all of a sudden sitting on 49 frames...

Seriousely, I've been begging for years to reform the AS market (both new aircraft and trader) into something useful.

1st and most important for new aircraft orders:

Buying (cash) and leasing needs to be decoupled
The more aircraft you buy (cash), the higher your discount
No discount on leasing as is, no refundable deposits


Lease rates could be made more "flexible" and realistic by:
- rates pending on a predefined lease period (discount the longer the period (years!)) - contractual penalties accordingly
- flexible (non refundable) deposits: the higher the deposit, the lower the lease rate
- or a combination of both

#6 AK

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Posted 01.02.2017 - 21:05

...
and if everybody wants to fly bobby or airbus, isn't that their prerogative?

In a perfect world yes, but my old economics book tells me:
Price is the balance of supply and demand. Now if we want to make it realistic, the TO is up to something. Production lines are limited. If there are barely any slots free on those lines, you certainly wont get a discount, at least not for the early slots.

I kind of like the TOs suggestion, but I find it difficult to implement for reasons you mention.

#7 yukawa

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Posted 01.02.2017 - 22:08

@AK: concerning the price developtment for more units at the risk of the producer, I agree with you, same for "cash" buying.

 

I do, wonder, though, if an established airline like Emirates or Air France or Lufthansa do get a discount for more aircraft orders, even if they don't pay "cash", but lease the aircrafts. I would assume that they are considered low risk. however, I assume they would not lease them from the manufacteurer, but some leasing company instead. I lack any insight, though.

 

for the original suggestion, though, as I understood it, increases the price per total unit produced would have a very negative impact for newly founded enterprises.


“Crying about the economy is a strategy. It won’t get you a job, but it will keep Kleenex in business.
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― Jarod Kintz, 99 Cents For Some Nonsense

#8 rubiohiguey2000

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Posted 02.02.2017 - 01:28

I do, wonder, though, if an established airline like Emirates or Air France or Lufthansa do get a discount for more aircraft orders, even if they don't pay "cash", but lease the aircrafts. I would assume that they are considered low risk. however, I assume they would not lease them from the manufacteurer, but some leasing company instead. I lack any insight, though.

 

When leasing , you actually order them from lease company in AS, not from a manufacturer, and the lease company orders it for you form manufacturer. Once you place a new lease order, that aircraft is already owned by AS Aircraft Lease company.

 

When buying, you order them directly from manufacturer.

 

P.S. Manufacturers also have lease companies, e.g. Boeing Capital.



#9 Matth

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Posted 02.02.2017 - 03:16

I do like the idea of a somewhat floating price of an aircraft. If it is very popular, it kinda seems logical that the price increases. At the same time, the two current most popular aircraft (737/A320) are so cheap because of the high demand (and probably vice versa).

With a very high production level, automation is encouraged and brings the unit cost down. The need to fill that many production slots to keep the plant going probably leads to a higher probability for discounts.

Furthermore, if a single customer buys a big amount of aircraft, he will get a high discount, probably also if you fill up empty production slots (like current 777 program), even if you only order a few.

The real life dynamics are quite complicated and I fear it's not that easy to reflect that in a simplified way in the game. I could imagine something of the following:

- Each aircraft (or for simplicity maybe all the same) has a table of increases/decreases of production time, which is triggered by demand, something like the production capacity. There must be a minimum level to keep the production going, albeit a very slow one
- The actual production time then is dependent on the above level
- Prices depend on the production capacity, individual order volume and possibly even the financial standing of the company
- Leasing should be improved as per AK's ideas and be more decoupled from the order
- And why not separate the manufacturer and the leasing pages? For leasing, you request a quote and get one from the AS company, but it could also include private leasing companies in the same page.

So let's assume a few examples.

There's a high demand for an aircraft over a period of time. The initial production level has been increased by a few steps making the actual production times faster (maybe 18 hours instead of 21). With the higher production level, the base discount has been increased. To further reflect the production slots issue, maybe the prices could even fluctuate daily up and down. If the overall demand is increasing and it's getting close to a further level change, prices should increase (production is filled, no need for the manufacturer to give a discount). If the demand is going back and it's almost up for a decrease in production level, the manufacturer might be willing to sell cheaper, just to keep the production going and filling up the slots. Now based on that price level, your individual airlines price can be calculated based on your order volume.

For private leasing companies that could be its own business strategy. Buying at low prices to make money leasing aircraft out to other players.
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#10 AK

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Posted 02.02.2017 - 05:27

Getting the player to player market working would be a dream come true finally.
I'm sitting on an 11-digit bank account not knowing where to put the money.
Buying a hundred airframes to put them for lease would be a way.
Right now the strict buy/lease coupling kills all such ideas.

#11 THRACIAN

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Posted 17.02.2017 - 04:33

Game World - Quimby V - 21.11.2016 - 03.04.2017 = 19 weeks = - 19 %
 
Quantity produced -     91 List price - 26,000,000 = Market price - 22,360,000 - Embraer 170 - 14 weeks - 14 %
Quantity produced -   129 List price - 26,000,000 = Market price - 22,584,000 - Embraer 170 - 15 weeks + 1 %, 19 weeks + 0 %
Quantity produced -     66 List price - 27,500,000 = Market price - 22,275,000 - Embraer 170 LR - 19 %
Quantity produced -     33 List price - 30,250,000 = Market price - 24,502,000 - Embraer 175 (enhanced) - 19 %
Quantity produced -     14 List price - 31,750,000 = Market price - 25,718,000 - Embraer 175 LR (enhanced) - 19 %
Quantity produced -   334 List price - 33,500,000 = Market price - 34,505,000 - Embraer 190 + 3 %
Quantity produced -     53 List price - 34,500,000 = Market price - 27,945,000 - Embraer 190 LR - 19 %
Quantity produced -     89 List price - 35,000,000 = Market price - 29,050,000 - Embraer 190 AR - 17 weeks - 17 %
Quantity produced -   109 List price - 35,000,000 = Market price - 29,340,000 - Embraer 190 AR - 18 weeks + 1 %, 19 weeks + 0 %
Quantity produced -     36 List price - 35,500,000 = Market price - 28,755,000 - Embraer 190 SR - 19 %
Quantity produced -1,747 List price - 35,500,000 = Market price - 41,535,000 - Embraer 195 + 17 %
Quantity produced -   256 List price - 36,000,000 = Market price - 36,720,000 - Embraer 195 LR + 2 %
Quantity produced -   172 List price - 36,500,000 = Market price - 36,865,000 - Embraer 195 AR + 1 %
 


Edited by THRACIAN, 08.04.2017 - 22:56.


#12 THRACIAN

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Posted 29.03.2017 - 11:24

Game World - Quimby V - 21.11.2016 - 03.04.2017 = 19 weeks

Quantity produced - 714 List price - 28,000,000 = Market price - 29,960,000 - Sukhoi Superjet 100-95 - 18 weeks + 7 %

Quantity produced - 690 List price - 28,000,000 = Market price - 29,680,000 - Sukhoi Superjet 100-95 - 19 weeks + 6 %

Quantity produced - 673 List price - 28,000,000 = Market price - 29,680,000 - Sukhoi Superjet 100-95LR + 6 %


Edited by THRACIAN, 03.04.2017 - 08:23.


#13 THRACIAN

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Posted 28.04.2017 - 22:47

Game World - Riem started in February 2015 - 29.04.2017 = 51 > weeks = - 50 %

 

Quantity produced -   64 List price - 40,700,000 = Market price - 20,350,000 - Airbus A318-100 light

Quantity produced -   54 List price - 42,000,000 = Market price - 21,000,000 - Airbus A318-100 medium

Quantity produced -   39 List price - 44,800,000 = Market price - 22,400,000 - Airbus A318-100 medium

Quantity produced - 210 List price - 49,000,000 = Market price - 49,980,000 - Airbus A319-100 light + 2 %

Quantity produced - 264 List price - 50,000,000 = Market price - 51,000,000 - Airbus A319-100 light (enhanced) + 2 %

Quantity produced -   39 List price - 51,000,000 = Market price - 25,500,000 - Airbus A319-100 medium

Quantity produced -   51 List price - 52,000,000 = Market price - 26,000,000 - Airbus A319-100 medium (enhanced)

Quantity produced -   76 List price - 52,000,000 = Market price - 26,000,000 - Airbus A319-100 SHARP

Quantity produced -     5 List price - 55,000,000 = Market price - 27,500,000 - Airbus A319-100 heavy

Quantity produced -   52 List price - 56,000,000 = Market price - 28,000,000 - Airbus A319-100 heavy (enhanced)

Quantity produced -   64 List price - 62,000,000 = Market price - 31,000,000 - Airbus A319-100 LR

Quantity produced - 194 List price - 62,000,000 = Market price - 62,620,000 - Airbus A319-100 LR (enhanced) + 1 %

Quantity produced -   12 List price - 53,000,000 = Market price - 26,500,000 - Airbus A319-100 high density

Quantity produced -   18 List price - 54,000,000 = Market price - 27,000,000 - Airbus A319-100 high density (enhanced)


Edited by THRACIAN, 28.04.2017 - 22:52.


#14 Reeve

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Posted 08.05.2017 - 12:14

I support the idea of introducing floating market prices for airplanes. I've got a few thoughts to add.

 

Calculating the price changes

Two quick thoughts on how AS could calculate the prices.

 

First, I think it would be important to have different discount/surcharge rates for different types of aircraft. Boeing and Airbus manufacture dozens of narrowbodies every month in real life. Comparatively, they rarely manufacture more than a dozen widebodies a month - the 787 is only 14p.m. at the moment, and the A350 is at 10p.m. I think there are a range of ways you could model this. The simplest might be to have different rates for prop, regional jet, narrowbody and widebody families. For example, you might get a 1% surcharge for every: 25 props, 50 regional jets, 100 narrowbodies, or 50 widebodies of a particular kind built (I'm assuming that the narrowbody market is the largest, but I could be wrong there).

 

Second, for the sake of realism, there might be some value in linking the discounts for variants of the same aircraft model, at least in part. For example, if Airbus is selling 1,000 A319 light (enhanced) narrowbodies per week, and 10 A319 LR (enhanced) per week, then realistically I don't think Airbus would be heavily discounting their LR jets - the jets are built on the same production lines, so they would probably just ramp up production of their popular models. Maybe they'd offer a small discount (or apply less of a surcharge) for their LR models, but probably not a huge one. The simplest way to do this would be simply to combine all of the aircraft in the same family (e.g. all A319 models; or all 737 MAX 8s) for counting purposes. 

 

Leasing v buying

Three thoughts on the points AK raises about leasing vs buying.

 

First, I totally support a more realistic lease market that includes fixed-term leases, variable deposits, and variable lease rates based (in part) on the term of the lease and size of the deposit. I'd also be in favour of including break fees in addition to (or even as an alternative to) deposits. Start-up airlines often use leases as a way to grow quickly without having to invest significant capital. Allowing airlines to sign up to multiple long-term leases with large break fees, but low deposits, might help new players.

 

Second, however, I'm not sure that it is true that airlines cannot get significant discounts for making large lease orders. Leasing companies themselves often receive discounts when they purchase large numbers of planes. Leasing companies often pass some of those discounts on to major customers that effectively underwrite their investment by agreeing to lease a substantial number of planes from them. In fact, in many cases, major airlines will have negotiated leases with the leasing companies before the leasing company places an order with the manufacturer - when airlines commit to those leases, it gives the leasing companies confidence to place large orders, which attract big discounts. Also, in real life, the sale-and-leaseback arrangement is pretty common - airlines buy a whole stack of planes from the manufacturer (which attracts a nice discount), but then sell the plane to a leasing company and lease it back. AS doesn't simulate sale-and-leasebacks, but a simple way to model them would be to keep some form of discount for bulk leases. 

 

Third, I think it is important to distinguish between the discount that one airline (say Emirates) gets for making a large order, compared with the surcharge/discount Airbus offers to all airlines for their very popular aircraft (e.g. the A321neo) versus their unpopular aircraft (e.g. the A380, these days). I think airlines should still get a discount for making large, individual orders, in addition to the surcharge/discount based on the overall demand for a particular kind of plane. 

 

Production rates

I like matth's idea, to also allow production rates to increase/decrease based on demand. It would make the game more realistic (e.g. 747, 777 and A380 rates are being cut right now as demand falls, while narrowbody and big-twin rates are going through the roof!). At the moment, there are some planes (mostly Russian, from memory) that actually have ok economics in AS, but that are extremely unpopular because of the slow production rates. If those planes became popular, it would be realistic for the manufacturers to expand their production lines, which in turn would make it viable for players to adopt those types of planes.

 

There are two things we would need to be careful about, when scaling up productions lines. First of all, because AS doesn't have production slots, it might be necessary to have diminishing returns on production rate increases - otherwise big airlines could be getting 10-20 A320s and 10-20 737s delivered every day! Second, and closely related, it might be important to think about how the production rate is linked to the % discount, and also back into future production rates. For example, if A320s can be built every 10 hours, but Tu-214s can only be built every 144 hours, you could end up with a vicious cycle - the price and production rate of A320s is skyrocketing because they can be built so fast, and the price of Tu-214s is plummeting purely because nobody can buy them fast enough to reach (for example) 100 planes/week.

 

It might be possible to link the discount/surcharge and production rate changes to the current production rate. For example, if Boeing has invested in lots of new factories to double its production rate, then Boeing would need to be selling double the number of jets before it considered increasing the production rate again - in other words, Boeing would only expand capacity further if it had reached capacity. If Boeing only sold 1.5x as many jets, it would either be selling of its factories (slashing production) or offering big discounts.

 



#15 AK

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Posted 08.05.2017 - 18:09

...
Leasing v buying
Three thoughts on the points AK raises about leasing vs buying.
 
...
 
Second, however, I'm not sure that it is true that airlines cannot get significant discounts for making large lease orders. ....


I didn't say that.
I was refering to the in-game setup where discounts on leases just make no sense the way they are offered.

Of course what you say is true. Translated into the game this would simply be a player-to-player lease. System-to-player only when pre-defined contract rules would apply (defined min. lease periods with penalties in case of contract breaches etc.)

Generally there's not much to disagree with your post.

#16 Reeve

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Posted 13.05.2017 - 15:16

Sorry for the misunderstanding, AK! And thank you for clarifying. I agree entirely.

#17 THRACIAN

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Posted 07.07.2017 - 07:55

I support the idea of introducing floating market prices for airplanes. I've got a few thoughts to add.

 

Thanks for the support! I think your suggestions are very good !

Are they possible, is there any chance of their realization !?

We only have to wait and hope for a lenient attitude from the team !



#18 THRACIAN

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Posted Yesterday, 07:07

Quimby 6, could be world with aircraft produced from 2010 to 2017. These are the most used in the game aircraft.

 

Game World - Quimby VI - 26.07.2017 - 28.07.2017 = 1 week
 

CS1 - in operation 2016 Quantity produced 1 /   21h - 374 ( +30h or +3% ) List price - 39,000,000 = 1 /   21+30=  51h or Market price - 40,170,000 - Bombardier CSeries 100 - 1 week + 3 %

CS3 - in operation 2016 Quantity produced 1 /   21h - 260 ( +20h or +2% ) List price - 46,000,000 = 1 /   21+20=  41h or Market price - 46,920,000 - Bombardier CSeries 300 - 1 week + 2 %

E95 - in operation 2006 Quantity produced 1 /   15h - 158 ( +10h or +1% ) List price - 35,500,000 = 1 /   15+10=  25h or Market price - 35,855,000 - Embraer 195 - 1 week + 1 %

T20 - in operation 1995 Quantity produced 1 / 144h - 131 ( +10h or +1% ) List price - 42,500,000 = 1 / 144+10=154h or Market price - 42,925,000 - Tupolev TU-204-100 - 1 week + 1 %

DH4 - in operation 2014 Quantity produced 1 /   18h - 128 ( +10h or +1% ) List price - 23,000,000 = 1 /   18+10=  28h or Market price - 23,230,000 - Bombardier Dash8-Q400 NextGen BASIC - 1 week + 1 %

SU9 - in operation 2011 Quantity produced 1 /   39h - 119 ( +10h or +1% ) List price - 28,000,000 = 1 /   39+10=  49h or Market price - 28,280,000 - Sukhoi Superjet 100-95 - 1 week + 1 %

CR7 - in operation 2014 Quantity produced 1 /   12h - 115 ( +10h or +1% ) List price - 26,000,000 = 1 /   12+10=  22h or Market price - 26,260,000 - Bombardier CRJ 700 NextGen - 1 week + 1 %

320 -  in operation 2016 Quantity produced 1 /   21h - 111 ( +10h or +1% ) List price - 60,000,000 = 1 /   21+10=  31h or Market price - 60,600,000 - Airbus A320neo light - 1 week + 1 %

SU9 - in operation 2011 Quantity produced 1 /   39h - 100 ( +10h or +1% ) List price - 28,000,000 = 1 /   39+10=  49h or Market price - 28,280,000 - Sukhoi Superjet 100-95LR - 1 week + 1 %

 

 

320 -  in operation 1990 Quantity produced 1 /   21h - 84 List price -   55,400,000 = Market price -   55,400,000 - Airbus A320-200 light - 1 week

L4T -  in operation 1979 Quantity produced 1 /     6h - 86 List price -     2,000,000 = Market price -     2,000,000 - LET 410UVP - 1 week

CRK - in operation 2010 Quantity produced 1 /   12h - 70 List price -   32,750,000 = Market price -   32,750,000 - Bombardier CRJ 1000 NextGen EL - 1 week

321 -  in operation 2017 Quantity produced 1 /   21h - 59 List price -   72,980,000 = Market price -   72,980,000 - Airbus A321neo light - 1 week

359 -  in operation 2014 Quantity produced 1 /   30h - 56 List price - 159,000,000 = Market price - 159,000,000 - Airbus A350-900XWB - 1 week

AT7 -  in operation 1996 Quantity produced 1 /   15h - 48 List price -   19,000,000 = Market price -   19,000,000 - ATR 72-500 - 1 week

AT7 -  in operation 2011 Quantity produced 1 /   15h - 48 List price -   20,000,000 = Market price -   20,000,000 - ATR 72-600 - 1 week

7M8 - in operation 2017 Quantity produced 1 /   21h - 45 List price -   61,500,000 = Market price -   61,500,000 - Boeing 737-8 MAX - 1 week

CR9 - in operation 2014 Quantity produced 1 /   12h - 44 List price -   31,000,000 = Market price -   31,000,000 - Bombardier CRJ 900 NextGen - 1 week

DH4 - in operation 2014 Quantity produced 1 /   18h - 43 List price -   24,000,000 = Market price -   24,000,000 - Bombardier Dash8-Q400 NextGen EHGW - 1 week

736 -  in operation 1998 Quantity produced 1 /   21h - 43 List price -   40,500,000 = Market price -   40,500,000 - Boeing 737-600 BGW - 1 week


Edited by THRACIAN, Today, 14:51.





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