I have this idea that I think many might find exciting. I think Martin and the A/S team should start a new world where the Market Analysis feature will actually give a lot more information. I am suggesting that in place of the ‘Historic capacities and prices chart’ which is always shown on the Market Analysis page, the new game world will actually show a ‘demand chart’ and a ‘current capacity offered chart’. This will very much be like reality where a business or an airline gets the chance to do a market analysis before plunging into the market!
I know some people actually kick against anything new. The truth is that such a feature will be mimicking reality (In reality, people don’t just blow AS$10 million on a wimp). Beyond this however, it will also be a good test of business acumen - it is one thing to have the tool, it is quite another thing to learn how to use it - thinking up a combination of destinations which may have under-exploited demand or opportunities. Still yet, it is quite another thing to be able to position your company with the right equipment to exploit such a market (whether small or large). So, as you can see, it is not just a question of show & tell. You need to think up and research various combinations of routes to which the tool will inform and educate you. The tool will only tell you what you can imagine or think up!
So according to my proposal, each combination of routes will have its demand shown in a chart format and the current offering/capacity also shown in a chart. This will eliminate the current orientation towards trial and error. Most players will become more analytical and will only launch a program if they are sure that they have a market or believe they can muscle into the market. The tool will also allow newbies to know their place (if they are smart) and consequently seek smaller or less competitive corners of the world. I believe such a game world will end up sustaining a more diverse and savvy pool of players who have greater understanding of their market and the strategies required to conquer their market. Both traditionally quiet areas and some busy markets should experience more accurate representation in the process and I honestly believe players will enjoy this immensely - it takes everyone one step closer to being business decision makers rather than gamblers!
I don’t see the advantage of this so-called secret of yours - everyone knows the routes with big market and automatically gun for such - it is a no brainer! We are always crying and asking for realistic representation, right? Ok, here is an opportunity. in real life, business men do not act like juveniles who are playing games, doing trial and error and thinking it is a ‘secret’. Business leaders use real data and analysis to make decisions for their businesses. It is not as if I am asking to know the secret of coca-cola of something proprietary. This kind of knowledge should be based on research. In other words, the game just doesn’t randomly put information out there - you have to research each specific airport pairs!! The game only responds to enquiries and so it is not until a player seeks information and plugs in vital queries such as airport pairs, then the tool will give the market analysis. A/S could even make players pay for it. For instance, I think it makes sense to want to know and understand the size of the demand between MAN and MUC airports - this helps buyer make critical decisions such as equipment type, frequency, scheduling and strategy. This is how it is in real business environments.
The fear that many experienced players have is that the secret routes which they have discovered will become common knowledge. This unreasonable fear is however unfounded! As things stand, a player can easily be shadowed by another determined player - all he has to do is check your schedule, check ORS to see if your load factor is good, check your market analysis to see all competition and how well planes are filling up and simply duplicate your route. So where is the secret?? The advantage of my proposal is that independent decisions can be made (reducing copy cats) and so a player’s plan can be based on his own research rather than following others in ‘safe’ assumptions and experiences. The best part is the fact that market researches are unique and therefore knowing what market to research is the key. For instance, it may not occur to any of the 600 players (or whatever) in a game world that there is a decent sized market between MLA and ARN which could be exploited with a regional jet on a twice daily schedule, the only person that will discover that is the person who thinks to make a query! You see my point? It is not about spilling secrets, rather it is about rewarding enterprising and savvy business people.
Lastly, I am not even suggesting that they make it a feature in all game worlds. My proposal, if you care to read it properly, merely suggests deploying such a feature in a specific game-world - let us see how it goes and if players really like it or not. I am willing to bet that a game world with such a feature will prove to be quite popular and exciting for many players. Players who don’t like it can choose to play in other game-worlds.
Given my current understanding about the game mechanism, I don't think this feature will be useful to based your route planning decision anyway. To my understanding, AS demand for particular route is not generated using real world data of traffic between the two cities, but using demand distribution formula that utilize airport passengers number. That's why we might notice some real world trunk routes might not doing so well and some non-existent routes might actually work in AS.
Take real world POM-SIN served daily by 214 seats Boeing 767-300ER, in AS you can't even justified 150 seaters Boeing 737-900ER for the route without well built connection at either end of the route. Also take a look on daily non-stop ATL-DOH, a recent article I read said its daily O/D pax number is 5, hence the US airline dropped the route but the ME airline actually will operate 259 seaters Boeing 777-200LER on the route starting June 2016.
Since AS is about connection, when you start a route, it might initially looks like a disaster with load factor seems so low, but when you have built your hub properly, the connecting traffic will complement the O/D traffic and improve your load factor. The market research feature you propose certainly can't factor in this connecting traffic anyway.
So I'm pretty much satisfied with the information currently available in the market analysis. You just need to keep growing your network, to prevent your neighboring competitors steal your connecting traffic by offering more destination from their hubs.
Regardless of what model the game uses to decide demand, this proposal is still valid. As long as the game decides that there is a certain volume of traffic between two locations (regardless of what formula it uses), then that is all that is required for the Market analysis/Research. If the game decided that in a particular game-world, there is a demand of 7000 seat daily between MEX (Mexico city) and BRU (Brussels), then so be it. The irony of this proposal is that while such a demand may exist somewhere in the game, it is quite possible that despite the Market Analysis tool, no player may think of connecting the two airports and therefore much of that demand will seep away by using connecting flights. Thus, the tool is intended to be very helpful but it is not designed to be a magical soothsayer which automatically tells you where to go and how.
Rpandugita, why does any suggestion always have to be about us? I am doing well and need no advice with my operation. As a matter of fact, you will not find me in any server which is easy and you certainly won’t find me flying in Europe, US, China or any of the big nations where it is easy to build a large airline. I always look for the tough destinations - this is what delights me and gives me satisfaction. So having said that, I do not see why people feel compelled to come here and voice opinions based on their own narrow perspective without taking a wider view of what comprises of a good airline simulation experience. Isn’t this suppose to be an Airline simulation game?? Do you launch real airlines blindly?? Are all Airlines using hub and spoke model?? For many players, it is a simple matter of if anything is doing good for them, then it must be good - leave it alone! That is the mental attitude! I am not making suggestions because I am not doing good where I am, as a matter of fact I am doing very good! I am simply putting forward a proposal that makes sound business sense. I have said it before and I will have to repeat it - THE PROPOSAL IS FOR A SINGLE GAME WORLD AND NOT FOR EVERY GAME WORLD! If you don’t like it or don’t feel the need for it, that doesn’t matter cos you do not have to play in that game-world while others may enjoy it. There are indeed very good reasons to want such a feature and the reasons are simply as follows;
It mimics the real world where business decision makers do their market analysis before launching a business.
It keeps the game exciting because route development is based on sound analysis rather than trial and error.
It is NOT intended to make it easier for players because each player will still have to research as many potential routes as possible.
it does not even require a new GUI because the charts in Market analysis feature are already there.
It allows unstable smaller markets to be exploited without everybody gravitating to the big centers
It allows for a different playing experience on a different server
A game with such a feature will elevate and reward business acumen and savvy investors.
It allows a player to form real world strategies just like in the reality where a CEO can decide whether he wants the airline to follow the "Hub and Spoke" business model (connections) or he wants to build the business as a "Point to Point" business model.
It allows a sophisticated real-life model whereby there is a variety of approaches,there is diversity in choices and a plethora of options (players don't have to be stuck with one mindset, stuck with playing in US, China or Europe; and they don't have to copy the same tried and tested methods)
It allows successful players who have built a large holding and have surplus cash to invest with knowledge and acumen based on real potentials.
In real world airlines do not get excel sheets saying there is so and so demand between two cities. They can only get excel sheets with past demand. Past demand may be an indication of the future, but it is not representation of future.
There are so excited third party tools that help you do a lot of analytical work in AirlineSim if you know how to use them. If you want data that demand is so and so between cities A and B well then there is another Sim that foes that.
In real world airlines do not get excel sheets saying there is so and so demand between two cities. They can only get excel sheets with past demand. Past demand may be an indication of the future, but it is not representation of future.
There are so excited third party tools that help you do a lot of analytical work in AirlineSim if you know how to use them. If you want data that demand is so and so between cities A and B well then there is another Sim that foes that.
Actually they do. There are market research companies that can dig into all kinds of details using different statistical and empirical methods.
If I was to ask such a company that specializes in the airline industry, what is the demand vs supply between two cities in the world and future prospects, they will be able to provide me with a relatively accurate estimation that has for example a 5%-10% variance in it. Still, it can give you the answer if it is worth opening a new route.
I don’t see the advantage of this so-called secret of yours - everyone knows the routes with big market and automatically gun for such - it is a no brainer! We are always crying and asking for realistic representation, right? Ok, here is an opportunity. in real life, business men do not act like juveniles who are playing games, doing trial and error and thinking it is a ‘secret’. Business leaders use real data and analysis to make decisions for their businesses. It is not as if I am asking to know the secret of coca-cola of something proprietary. This kind of knowledge should be based on research. In other words, the game just doesn’t randomly put information out there - you have to research each specific airport pairs!! The game only responds to enquiries and so it is not until a player seeks information and plugs in vital queries such as airport pairs, then the tool will give the market analysis. A/S could even make players pay for it. For instance, I think it makes sense to want to know and understand the size of the demand between MAN and MUC airports - this helps buyer make critical decisions such as equipment type, frequency, scheduling and strategy. This is how it is in real business environments.
Not my secret formula and simulation data, I am still asking why the company AS should present data which are the heart of their business model (= the game AS? You are also saying that everybody knows the big markets and best routes. If you would now have charts for every single route, how long would it take to find also the not obvious high demand routes - some hours or days and all of these routes would be packed with players flying these routes - would this help to make the game (not talking about reality) better? I would definitely miss the fun to find exactly these routes...
I was just about to write a comprehensive answer but in the middle of it I thought - hell, why am I doing this? Some people always want the game to be easier and always want the work to be done for themselves instead of doing their own market research (yes, it is possible!). Can't help them.
At first when reading this idea, it thought it is a bad idea... but thinking about it and listening to the previous speakers I have to admit, that to some degree this may be a good idea.
I think if you want a market research tool like that, it may be a very strong tool for an airline to use. But if you keep it as it is in real life, you have to shape the conditions for such a tool realistically:
Market Research Data:
- charge an airline high prices for research data, depending on the accuracy and amount of data
- maybe offer different research institutes, just like with maintenance providers they offer different qualities at different prices
- build-in a variance, so that the data bought comes with a degree of uncertainty
At first when reading this idea, it thought it is a bad idea... but thinking about it and listening to the previous speakers I have to admit, that to some degree this may be a good idea.
I think if you want a market research tool like that, it may be a very strong tool for an airline to use. But if you keep it as it is in real life, you have to shape the conditions for such a tool realistically:
Market Research Data:
- charge an airline high prices for research data, depending on the accuracy and amount of data
- maybe offer different research institutes, just like with maintenance providers they offer different qualities at different prices
- build-in a variance, so that the data bought comes with a degree of uncertainty
Cheers
That is exactly how it works in the real life too. Market research is never 100 % accurate, and it can cost an arm and a leg to get it.
So if you order a market research and have to pay say 100.000 AS$ for each research, you will be thinking twice for each research you order. Particularly if you know that it is only 85% accurate at best ...
So, with my billions on account I just get a market research for each possible connection and save that. On the next world I’ll know exactly what to do and beat any new player that can’t afford it.
Plus I get my buddies from the alliance if I really run out of money.
I always thought demand on A/S was dynamic and changes from time to time and from location to location (except for obvious big routes). I can remember having several 'secret' routes in which I have had surprising success in some game-worlds in the past, but my attempt to repeat the same 'little secrets' did not work in other worlds more recently. I am not privy to the algorithm or logic of how demand is determined in A/S, and so I might be missing something. Anyway, ...seeing that most guys don't think it is a good idea, we can drop it.
So, with my billions on account I just get a market research for each possible connection and save that. On the next world I'll know exactly what to do and beat any new player that can't afford it.
Plus I get my buddies from the alliance if I really run out of money.
This just doesn’t make sense to me.
It shouldn't be a money thing then.
Limit it to so one airport at least must be in a country you have flight rights in and to once per week per account (not airline, but maybe credit paying enterprise?) or so as the number of statistical experts is limited in the real world. As every server has different airlines and, especially, strong or weak hubs, results may vary between servers.
Yes, for huge airlines and all you long time players and experts this may seem unnecessary. But I'll give you an example:
I'm a new player, started in Lima on Idlewild and while my network isn't that bad my international routes, except LAX, even the real world ones, are not running as well as expected. Instead of sinking even more money in useless routes in hope to find a sweet one - besides the fact my airline could barely support such searching games - I think about closing down the enterprise.
If I at least once a week could get an estimate based on the current server and airline data it might help me to find something useful to fly.
This kind of research is at least in principle possible today: Look at real world demands, routes, historical ties between cities and countries. Not in-game, but online. It helps.
That's not working (well) in my own experience as I've already written like 10 minutes ago, at least for not as popular places like Peru / Idlewind. It might work better for first world places that have excellent historical recording government systems like USA or Germany, which are also published for free or a small amount of money online.
Search for real flights (f.e. here: www.flightstats,com) - it is possible to find the routes from nearly every airport in the world.
I'm a new player, started in Lima on Idlewild and while my network isn't that bad my international routes, except LAX, even the real world ones, are not running as well as expected. Instead of sinking even more money in useless routes in hope to find a sweet one - besides the fact my airline could barely support such searching games - I think about closing down the enterprise.
If I at least once a week could get an estimate based on the current server and airline data it might help me to find something useful to fly.
You should first concentrate on the domestic market. As a new company I would not fly to the US - try the direct neighbourhood and seve the quite high demand on domestic routes.
That's quite a problem when subsidaries from very rich airlines control and overflood the Ecuadorian, Columbian, Argentinian and Paraguian (?) market and squeez out lots of Peruvian PAX, basically rendering huge cities like Iquitos nearly irrelevant.
Rest of the domestic market is controlled by me but thanks for sharing you didn't even take the time to check out my airline before dropping your comment. It was really not helpful at all and just showed why new servers have another advantage - one can build an airline in a second or third world market without being destroyed by "fun secondary airlines" of old enterprises.
Edit: I also do use real world research. Again: At least the Peruvian market is not correct in AS. One of the reasons for this might be the fact Peru (and at least Chile, too) had an increase of over 100% over the last few years in PAX as well as not too much data available, especially about non-capital PAX. I already explained this, too. Maybe I need to use text modules? ;)